F

Frosted

STRIP

Financial Model Explorer — SF Bay Area Focus

Interactive assumptions explorer. Change anything — the entire 3-year model updates live.

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Based on 2026 synced model • Strip vs Mall
Location & Market Intelligence
Type a ZIP or city (SF Bay Area focus). Select a center, then click "Enrich with Grok" for fresh Census + migration + birth data via AI. All numbers update live.
Quick examples:
Data synthesized from public sources. Click "Apply" to propagate.
Assumptions
Model Inputs — hover ⓘ for explanations
All values editable
LOCATION ECONOMICS
Store Size ⓘThis is the size of the store we’re modeling: about 1,400 square feet (sf). That’s roughly the size of a small shop or a large apartment. It works in either a smaller outdoor “strip” center or inside a big mall. Because etching takes only 5–10 minutes, you can serve more customers per hour than places like paint-your-own-pottery or Build-A-Bear.
sq ft
Rent (annual per sq ft) ⓘHow much you pay the landlord per square foot of space per year. “Strip” means a smaller outdoor shopping center (like a row of stores along a street). “Mall” means a large indoor shopping center. The $42–$55 range is typical for nicer locations in well-off neighborhoods. “All-in” includes extra fees like CAM (Common Area Maintenance — your share of parking lots, security, etc.).
/sf/yr
Monthly rent: $4,900
REVENUE BASE (Y1)
Y1 Annual Revenue Target ⓘThis is the total sales we expect the store to make in its first full year. It’s a realistic starting point that factors in slow months, busy holiday periods, and the boost from marketing. We compare it to similar hands-on experience businesses (like paint-your-own pottery studios or Build-A-Bear) to make sure the number is believable.
$
Comps benchmark
$460k sales per store (mature)
SEASONALITY ⓘSales naturally go up and down depending on the time of year. This business does well around holidays and birthdays (when people buy gifts and throw parties) and slower right after the holidays. We use marketing in the slow months to book parties ahead of time so the store stays busy.
reset
Q1 0.82
Post-holiday lull
January–March is usually the slowest time (after the holidays). We plan extra marketing spending during these months to book birthday parties and events in advance so the store doesn’t go empty.
Q2 1.00
Base
April–June is our “normal” level. It includes Mother’s Day and a steady flow of events and walk-in customers.
Q3 1.15
Back-to-school
July–September tends to be a bit busier because of back-to-school shopping, summer camps, and lots of birthday parties.
Q4 1.45
Holiday surge
October–December is by far the busiest time because of holiday gifts and end-of-year parties. This one quarter can make up a huge portion of the year’s sales and profit.
COST DRIVERS
Monthly Labor (guides + owner draw) ⓘThis is the monthly cost for people who work in the store. It pays for 1 or 2 staff members who help customers with the etching sessions, plus a modest salary for the owner. We’re modeling a small, efficient team.
$
Other Fixed Monthly (utils, ins, misc) ⓘOngoing monthly costs that don’t change much with sales: electricity, water, insurance, cleaning supplies, credit card fees, etc. Together with rent and staff pay, these are the basic “keep the lights on” costs before you even spend money on marketing.
$
Marketing (ongoing) ⓘMoney spent to get customers in the door — Google and Facebook/Instagram ads, partnerships with schools and local groups, events, email newsletters, etc. In the first year we budget about $18,000 total. We spend more at the beginning to get known, then less once people start coming back on their own. We expect every dollar spent on marketing to bring in about $4 in sales.
%
of revenue
≈ $17,880 /yr
Gross Margin ⓘThis is the percentage of every sale that’s left after you pay for the actual materials (glass and etching cream). Because the materials are cheap and the etching process is fast, we keep a high percentage of the sales price as profit before other expenses. 72% is a cautious estimate compared to similar experience businesses.
%
COGS = 28%
Yellow inputs drive the entire model. Hover any ⓘ icon for detailed explanations drawn from the source model. Marketing uses % of revenue. Seasonality is normalized so annual always matches target.
Y1 REVENUE
$298,000
Q4 drives ~30%
Y1 NET PROFIT ⓘWhat’s left after paying the rent, staff, materials, marketing, utilities, insurance, and a modest salary for the owner. This is before the business pays income taxes. Even if the full year shows only a small profit, the store can still have positive cash in many months because marketing spending is front-loaded.
+$12,400
Est. breakeven month 7–9
Y3 REVENUE
$535,000
+80% from Y1
3-YEAR CUMULATIVE NET
+$155k
pre-tax, after owner comp
Current Market: National High-Income Baseline • Median HH: $120k • Rent psf: 42 (Strip) • Viability: 68/100
Revenue Projection (Seasonally Adjusted)
3-year view
Year 1
Base
$298,000
Gross Profit $215k (72%)
Net (pre-tax) +$12k
Year 2
+49%
$445,000
Gross Profit $321k
Net (pre-tax) +$76k
Year 3
+20%
$535,000
Gross Profit $385k
Net (pre-tax) +$125k
Y1 → Y2 growth ⓘWe expect sales to grow quite a bit in the second year. This comes from word-of-mouth, good Google reviews, an email list of past customers, and people returning for more parties or gifts. The marketing done in year 1 keeps paying off in year 2.
49%
Y2 → Y3 growth ⓘGrowth slows down in year 3 because the store is no longer brand new. At this point we focus on keeping regular customers happy and running the store more efficiently rather than trying to grow as fast as possible.
20%
Y1 Quarterly Revenue Breakdown
Quarter Revenue % of Year Seasonality
Seasonality factors are normalized — total always equals the Y1 annual target you set.
Y1 Quarterly Cash Flow (seasonal marketing)
Quarter Revenue Mkt Spend Gross Profit OpEx Net Cumulative
Marketing spend is higher in slow quarters (Q1/Q2) to build the booking pipeline. Cumulative net profit shown for Y1.
3-Year P&L Snapshot
Metric Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Startup Costs (One-time) ⓘThe one-time money needed to open the doors. This includes deposits, construction inside the space, equipment, first inventory of glass, initial marketing, legal fees, and insurance. The total is kept relatively low because etched glass doesn’t require as much expensive equipment or inventory as some other hands-on experiences.
$110,500
Deposits auto-update with rent. Other costs are editable below if needed.
Monthly Operating Expenses (Y1 Avg) ⓘThese are the regular monthly costs in the first year. Rent and staff pay are fairly steady. Marketing goes up and down with how much we’re selling. The total of these steady costs for a strip-center location is roughly $17,000–$19,000 per month before marketing. You need to bring in about $26,000–$31,000 in sales per month just to cover all the bills.
Total Monthly OpEx $19,050
Marketing spend scales with revenue. Fixed costs (rent + labor + other) are stable.
Revenue by Year
Net Profit Progression
Demographic Ebb & Flow (Births + Migration Index)
Market-Adjusted Success Factors & Probability
Propagated from location selection + public data
How the score works: It looks at local wealth, rent vs sales, external factors like nearby schools (great for parties/groups) and complementary experiential spots (drives traffic/synergy), plus comparison to similar businesses. Higher = better odds of hitting the modeled results. Everything updates live.
Other useful information (live from current location/market):
These values now feed into the model (kids% boosts group rev/viability; competition lifts required mktg%; anchors/traffic/drive pop lift y1Rev & groupScore; extra tax reduces net & viability). Update via market selection or defaults.
Benchmark Context (Original Comps)
Build-A-Bear (BBW)
Public comp • $496–530M revenue • 55%+ gross margin • 600+ units • Strong experiential retail precedent for asset-light scaling.
Mature stores make strong sales from the hands-on experience plus merchandise.
Color Me Mine
Similar hands-on craft studio franchise • Typical store makes $443k–$479k per year • Costs $179k–$438k to open • 120+ locations. Very close comparison.
Painting with a Twist / Pinot’s
Paint-night experience studios • Average store makes $228k per year (top performers make $771k+) • Very high margins • Relatively low cost to open.
Frosted positioning: Faster throughput (etching 5–10 min vs hours), lower COGS than plush/ceramics, 72% gross margin held conservative vs comps. Marketing 2–6% of sales long-term is standard.
All calculations are client-side only. Adjust assumptions to explore scenarios. Original source: Frosted Financial Model (SF Bay Area focus, 2026).